National championship game: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 4 Ohio State (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

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Mandel: Over the past 10 days I’ve talked myself into and out of both Oregon and Ohio State countless times. Never have I been less certain of a national championship game pick. Maybe it’s because the two teams are so similar. Maybe it’s an unavoidable consequence of the playoff, with both teams coming off impressive semifinal bowl wins against respected opponents. Whatever the case, the only outcome that would surprise me is if the final score is 17-16. This one will almost certainly be a shootout.

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I finally made up my mind Sunday afternoon: I’m picking the Buckeyes. Part of me thinks it’s nuts to pick against Marcus Mariota. But a bigger part of me thinks Ohio State is on a run not unlike Urban Meyer’s first national championship season at Florida, in 2006, where the Gators did not truly crystalize as a juggernaut until the conference championship. Similarly, Ohio State was impressive at times during the regular season but never more so than it has been its past two games in beating Wisconsin 59-0 and Alabama 42-35.

I don’t worry about quarterback Cardale Jones and the Ohio State offense. If anything they should play better than they did against Alabama, because Oregon’s defense is not as good as the Tide’s. In fact the Ducks had very little success slowing down Florida State in the Rose Bowl but were ultimately able to cause a series of turnovers. Ohio State obviously can’t afford to do the same. But I see tailback Ezekiel Elliott shredding the Ducks. I also see Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Tom Herman using Jones in an almost Tebow-like running role to help try to control the tempo and keep Oregon’s offense off the field. The Ducks will have a hard time bringing him down.